Recent policy initiatives in Virginia reflect an increased urgency in addressing the state’s contribution to global warming. Eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from Virginia’s energy system will drive major changes in how the Commonwealth generates its electricity, heats its buildings, powers its vehicles, and charts its economic future. In this report, we develop four scenarios to illustrate different approaches we can take to feasibly reach net zero. These scenarios are not forecasts, but potential pathways meant to highlight the costs and benefits of different choices we may make and of acting quickly. Our four scenarios include a likely case given available technology and trends; two stress tests meant to highlight the importance of acting quickly and using all of our resources; and an optimistic scenario in which new technology is rapidly developed and adopted.

Author: Bill Shobe  |  Art Small  |  Anthony Artuso